Donald Trump’s chances of winning are soaring

The swing states are breaking for the Republican. Fear of his return appears to be fading

 
The swing states are breaking for Donald Trump. That is the growing consensus among forecasters Stateside. Five Thirty Eight has Trump moving to a 51 per cent chance of victory, Nate Silver gives Trump a 53 per cent chance, and The Economist has Trump at 54 per cent.
The projection of my firm, J.L. Partners, has had Trump above a 50 per cent chance for a month. We now rate him with a 66 per cent chance of victory.
The main movement behind this is that Trump is performing better in the seven swing states. Surveys throughout this election cycle have tended to see him crossing the line in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia – but they are not enough to win an Electoral College victory. The former president will need to win one Midwest state to do so, from the crop of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. And although the latter two are better turf for Harris, the key state of Pennsylvania has seen a glut of positive Trump polling in recent days.
National polls are less important – the race is decided state-by-state – but can still give us an indication of the result. Recent, high-quality polls have seen Trump leading the popular vote. If that happens, then he will likely sweep all seven swing states and could make inroads in Minnesota and New Mexico, too. Such an outcome still feels unlikely: he did not achieve this even in 2016 against the much less popular Hillary Clinton.
In a polarised electorate, where more than 90 per cent have made up their minds, it might seem odd that Trump’s position is improving this late in the day. Two things might be fuelling this.
First, a boom in Republican registrations in Pennsylvania and strong early voting numbers in Nevada suggest that he may be benefitting from better than expected turnout from his own supporters. Though both sides are splurging vast amounts of cash on ads – and Harris’ ad budgets exceed the Trump campaign’s – his may be landing better, particularly in emphasising the day-to-day pains of inflation versus life under Trump.
Harris has succeeded where Biden could not in making this campaign a referendum on the former president, but this also means Trump can point to what his core voters see as a better economic picture in his first term.
His visits and stunts in key states have also been eye-catching and visual, robbing attention from the opposing campaign and driving up excitement among his own supporters. Could you tell me what Harris was doing on Sunday while Trump served up McDonald’s fries in Pennsylvania? Thought not.
Second, some undecideds may be breaking for Donald Trump. These are a small number – two million across all seven swing states – but, with margins so tight, where they land will make a difference.
I have spent months talking to these undecided voters across the country. Again and again, they have expressed concern about Trump’s temperament. He’s a “whining baby” said a Nevadan local as we scaled a sand dune together. He’s “plain nasty”, said an undecided fortune teller in North Carolina. He’s “not a good man”, a Seventh Day Adventist church pastor noted in Georgia. Trump’s poor debate performance against Kamala Harris, where she successfully riled him, only entrenched this view.
But in recent days, undecided voters have talked instead about his strength. “He might be an asshole, but he does get things done”, an undecided widow in Wisconsin told me. The prominence of foreign affairs, and the prospect of all-out war in the Middle East, may have helped this: voters still feel he is best-placed to handle global conflict than Harris. As the widow put it: “abortion rights don’t matter if we all get blown up”. Trump’s recent toning down of his sharpest rhetoric has given voters space to consider the upsides of his brashness.
Harris, meanwhile, faces problems in mobilising her own base. Black men – crucial in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina – are not showing signs of turning out in the same numbers as they did for Joe Biden or Barack Obama. One black voter, Gabriel, who I met in rural Georgia, put it frankly for me: “If you think white men have a problem with black women, wait ‘til you hear what black men think”.
Harris also faces attrition among Hispanic voters, and some progressive young voters are looking to punish her at the ballot box over her backing for Israel. Independent voters do not hate the Vice President. I have heard her described as “nice”, “like your aunt”, and a “good person”. But they doubt her strength and ability to lead.
There are caveats to everything I have said. A 35 per cent chance of a Harris win still means she wins in one in three of our simulations. The models are based on polls that have been wrong in the past. One state could also buck the trend due to local factors. Trump, for example, could be dragged down by the scandal-hit Republican candidate for governor in North Carolina.
But with two weeks to go, it is better to be in Donald Trump’s shoes than Kamala Harris.
While writing this article, Chris – an undecided voter in Georgia – called me. In 2020, he backed Biden out of fear of Trump. Though he hasn’t yet made up his mind, he told me: “I’m not scared of Trump in the way I have been before. I think we’ve got to face the reality for what it is. Trump’s going to get re-elected, but he won’t destroy the country”.
The fear is fading. If Kamala Harris cannot reawaken voters’ fear of Donald Trump, then he is set to win the most swing states in two weeks’ time.
James Johnson is the co-founder of J.L. Partners